Saturday, 30 January 2010

Time to start formulating a new strategy

A lot has happened in the weeks and months since I last wrote on this blog. Zimbabwean politics moves at hurricane pace in terms of events but sadly this is not the case with regard to progress in solving the perennial problems bedevilling our country.

We have seen the restart, suspension, and restart of the doomed talks between MDC, ZANU PF and Arthur Mutambara. We have also seen the start of Senator Roy Bennett’s trial which has provided some lighter moments especially the reported exchanges between the ‘Zanunised’ Attorney General Tomana and Mr Hitschmann. Then we learned that the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s properties had been attached for failure to service debts even though the ‘impeccable’ Gideon Gono is still the governor there. ZANU PF has been throwing the toys around because they have failed to fool and/or blackmail the West into lifting the targeted sanctions.

In the midst of all this drama we seem to have lost the plot a bit. By ‘we’ I mean all Zimbabweans outside of ZANU PF. In this theatre of absurdity we have allowed ZANU PF to regain initiative by moving the debate away from the real issues to sanctions and now the idea of holding the elections under the current constitutional dispensation. ZANU PF has been milking every opportunity to stall the progress towards a new Zimbabwe. In a clear sign that they are preparing for war we now hear that Andrew Langa and Joyce Mujuru were launching a parallel outreach process for the constitution. Everyone knows what ZANU PF’s idea of outreach is – broken bones, dead bodies, burnt homes, the list goes on. The farm invasions have intensified with Judges and Magistrates bribed into bending the law through farm offers. There are too many red flags to ignore.

While I never thought the MDC could get concessions from ZANU PF on all outstanding issues I still believed that there would be progress on some issues. Things are not looking good at the negotiations so we may have to start planning for an alternative ending. ZANU PF is trying to push MDC into leaving the GNU so that they can call elections without having to negotiate. If at all possible, the MDC should hang in there so as to frustrate ZANU PF’s plan to cheat the people of Zimbabwe of the future they deserve. The noises coming from Jacob Zuma and his SADC do not inspire confidence. Now he wants Zimbabwe to hold elections without sorting out the outstanding GPA issues. It would appear that Zimbabweans were used by the South African government as pawns in the politics of the World Cup. Now that the World Cup is in the bag South Africa does not care a hoot about the welfare of the Zimbabwean people. If ZANU PF chooses to kill thousands of Zimbabweans as part of an election campaign that takes place after the World Cup then it won’t matter.

The recent appeal to SADC and AU concerning the talks by the MDC should be viewed in the light of recent events. There is little or no chance that these two ‘esteemed’ African organizations will do anything about Mugabe’s wayward behaviour. The MDC must begin planning for a post GNU scenario. Everyone acknowledges that the MDC has done all it can to return Zimbabwe to the community of nations and to improve the economics of the country but it is likely that their position in the GNU will soon become untenable. They, therefore, must have a clear plan of action to counter ZANU PF strategy. The strategists in the party should come up with a comprehensive plan that covers all the things that could go wrong. As the cliché goes ‘Failure to plan is planning to fail’. The MDC appears to have been lulled into a false sense of security. I may be wrong but I think MDC is not planning for the worst. It would be tragic if when the GNU collapses or outlives its usefulness the MDC find themselves without a plan for countering ZANU PF. In 2008 we were caught off guard but once beaten twice shy. We should never allow ZANU PF to catch us napping again. Like always I do not expect the MDC to share their plans with us lesser mortals but those in the driving seat of the organisation should have a clear idea of what the organisation will do in the event of a premature end to the GNU. I am just worried that the MDC may be left without a chair when the music stops...

Saturday, 17 October 2009

What Now?

The decision by the MDC to stop cooperating with Zanu PF at Cabinet and Council of Ministers level has met with mixed reactions. There are those who think that the MDC has made a tactical error by backing themselves into a corner. They argue that if nothing happens then the MDC will be forced to go back into the Unity Government with tails between legs. On the other hand are those who feel that the MDC did the right thing by taking action and making a clear statement that things are not working. Those on this side feel that the time has come to stop hoping that things will get better and to start taking concrete steps.

What, however, is clear is that both those who disagree with the decision and those who agree with it are all agreed that walking away from the GNU will be catastrophic. Everyone seems to realise that this deal offers more hope for our nation than a situation where Mugabe and his lieutenants take over the running of the country again. I am not privy to Zanu PF thinking so I do not know what they think about the total collapse of this deal. However, judging from the power hunger that pervades people in this party it would not be farfetched to think that most of them would relish the chance to run (ruin) the country as they did in the last thirty years. Many in Zanu PF including Robert Mugabe believe that they have divine right to rule Zimbabwe even after losing the elections. This explains why Robert Mugabe is not doing anything even where issues have been resolved and agreed. The issue of provincial governors is a case in point. One senses that they are trying to push the MDC into walking away then they go back to the policies that made Mugabe and his cronies rich while the rest of the population starved. You can see that there is nostalgia in Zanu PF for those days when they could do what they want, when Gideon Gono expropriated foreign currency from organisations and individuals without regard for the law and when nobody asked questions. Even though now they still do not provide answers many in Zanu PF feel uncomfortable that these questions are being asked. Soon the land audit will start asking some uncomfortable questions. These may not result in people giving back land (Zanu does not do giving back) but it will expose the greed and corruption at the heart of the whole land reform programme. It is, therefore, in the interests of Zanu PF that this Unity Government collapses because then they can go back to blaming others for the problems bedevilling our nation.

Given this scenario it is imperative that the MDCs (Mutambara included) define a clear course of action. There are some uncomfortable questions that should be asked. These questions include having to decide when pulling out of the GNU will become an option as well as how much time they are going to give Zanu PF before escalating the crisis. There has to be some bench marks to determine when continued participation is no longer possible. The MDC does not have to make these public but it does need to start planning for two outcomes - the possibility of the contentious issues being resolved and the GNU continuing and the possibility that things come to a head and the GNU collapses. I am of the opinion that we need to keep this government going for as long as we can but that when it becomes unworkable then we should disengage fully. Those in the relationship are better placed to make this judgement call. What we, on the outside, can only say is that when the time to make this decision comes then they must be widespread consultation to ensure that the decision has the support of ordinary people as well as those in the leadership of the party.

I do not subscribe to the school of thought that says that the MDC will be the main loser if the GNU fails. Zanu PF will still be the government but only in name because there won’t be a country to rule over. If anything, it may end up being the tipping point for Zanu PF as the people’s anger may boil over. Who knows even the docile Zimbabweans may not be willing to go through any more suffering just to keep Zanu PF in power. Therefore, Zanu PF will do well to think of the possible consequences before sounding the death knell on the GNU. The people are now aware that Zanu PF was given a lifeline through the GNU. If they choose to squander it then they will face the consequences.

The GNU, with all its shortcomings, allows the MDCs some measure of influence and control with regard to the destiny of our nation. For example it has made it impossible for Gono to unilaterally dispense of the World Bank funds. It has given them access to government information as well as an opportunity to show the people that they can be a government. Everyone you speak to is talking about how the MDC has brought change to people’s lives. Everyone is also aware that the pace of change is being slowed down by Zanu PF. These are the benefits accruing from the MDC’s participation in the GNU.

I applaud the decision to make a statement through the partial withdrawal but I would counsel caution and serious thought before the MDC fully withdraws from the GNU.

Saturday, 5 September 2009

Blackmailing the USA and EU…


The recent attempt by Zanu PF (ZPF) to focus only on the issue of targeted sanctions without addressing other issues around the sanctions reveals a party that is both morally and intellectually bankrupt. I listened to Minister Mutasa of ZPF speaking on VOA Studio 7 about the issue and was astonished at his naivety. He seems to believe that the targeted sanctions brought about by ZPF’s policy of intolerance should just be lifted because ZPF and MDC have formed a government together. While Mutasa is happy to put conditions for the MDC he does not seem to think that it is right for others to put conditions to be fulfilled before the targeted sanctions are removed. The targeted sanctions are a direct result of ZPF actions and their removal should be directly linked to ZPF actions. Just last week Minister Mutasa was quoted in the state media as having said that there was never any intention by ZPF to share power equally with the MDC. The plan from the beginning was always to use MDC as window dressing in order for Robert Mugabe to remain in power. Contrary to the terms of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) Mutasa claimed that Mugabe was both Head of State and Head of Government with power to do things without consulting the other principals in the Inclusive Government. Such warped thinking reveals the real intentions of ZPF in signing the GPA. The real intention was to allow the senior ZPF figures directly affected by targeted sanctions to travel to the West and enjoy their ill-gotten wealth. It exposes the duplicity of ZPF. It is, therefore, interesting that Minister Mutasa should be the one complaining the loudest about targeted sanctions. If anything he should be demonstrating that his party is committed to implementing the whole GPA instead of only those sections that give ZPF an advantage. The answer to the sanctions is simple. Implement all agreements and involve all parties in decision making. Another typical example of ZPF intransigence is the decision by Minister Chinamasa to withdraw Zimbabwe from the SADC Tribunal without Cabinet or Parliamentary approval. This clearly shows how ZPF has no respect for SADC and its leaders where they feel that their interests are under threat. It also shows how ZPF has no respect for its partners in the unity government. Any self respecting person can never take this kind of circus on the part of the ZPF half of the unity government seriously. If we are unable to follow our own laws in terms of making foreign policy decisions then why should we expect others to think that the Inclusive Government is working? The targeted sanctions will die a natural death once Zimbabwe is firmly on the path of democracy, good governance and respect for human and property rights. The evidence so far does not seem to suggest that we are there yet.

What one can read from the noises coming out of the ZPF camp is that they are trying to blackmail the US and EU into removing the sanctions. The plan is to stall all government business and the full implementation of the GPA in the hope that the EU and US will then give in and remove the targeted sanctions. ZPF will continue to refuse to deal with the unilateral appointment of the RBZ Governor and Attorney General. They will continue to drag feet on the issue of appointing Provincial Governors, the swearing in of Roy Bennett and the setting up of the various Constitutional Commissions. The hope is that this will stop government business and possibly turn the people against the MDC once the pace of change slows down. Once this begins to happen ZPF hopes that the US and EU will be forced to the table not wanting to see Zimbabwe return to the dark days of five or so months ago. ZPF hopes that this blackmail will force the US and EU to lift the sanctions in return for progress rather than as a reward for progress.

It is imperative, therefore, that the International Community starts real engagement of the government of Zimbabwe not only in terms of food and medicines but in terms of funding those social enterprises that allow ordinary Zimbabweans to experience the benefits of the new political dispensation. I would want the US and EU to start funding projects in the social ministries such as Energy, Water Resources, Education, Local Government, Health, etc. The current approach of sending aid through NGOs is not helping the economy to recover. While maintaining the targeted sanctions I would want the US and EU to start funding the government directly rather than through Aid Agencies. This is the only way to counter ZPF blackmail because when government business continues in spite of ZPF’s stalling then they will have no cards to play. Those in the International Community who care about Zimbabweans should realise that the current policy of not engaging the Zimbabwe government directly at all is not working. We need a new approach from both the US and EU. But for all their shouting ZPF should not blackmail the US and EU into lifting the targeted sanctions. Not until all the conditions have been met.

Monday, 17 August 2009

OF SANCTIONS AND THE BLAME GAME…

Ephraim Masawi of ZANU PF has recently been quoted saying because the targeted sanctions still remain so the MDCs have not kept their Global Political Agreement (GPA) commitments. It would appear that ZANU PF is trying to shift blame before the arrival of Zuma in Harare. This clearly shows that there is trepidation in the corridors of ZANU PF power as they are not sure of what Zuma stands for. This has left ZANU PF clutching at straws as they try to show that the other parties have also not kept their commitments.

There is no dispute amongst all commentators that ZANU PF has stalled the progress of the GNU by refusing to fully consummate the GPA. The examples of ZPF intransigence come thick and fast. Mugabe’s unilateral re-appointment of the RBZ governor and the Attorney General, The unilateral appointment of Permanent Secretaries (although later ratified by Tsvangirai and Mutambara), the refusal to install Roy Bennett, Failure to appoint the new Provincial Governors as agreed in the GPA, the list goes on. Faced with these real issues that show commitment or lack of on their part, ZANU PF has come up with its own list of complaint(s) made up of one issue – the targeted sanctions. They now claim that because the sanctions have not been removed therefore the MDCs have failed the GPA. It is instructive to note that most western governments have said that until there is concrete and irreversible change they will not be lifting these sanctions. The thinking in most western capitals is you can only reward people for success. No one calls the GNU a success yet, not even ZANU PF.

Tsvangirai and Mutambara have called for the sanctions to be removed risking the backlash from their own supporters who feel that they are selling out. There is nothing more that they can do but to wait for the various governments to make their own minds up. However, there is a lot ZANU PF can do to ensure that the sanctions go away. Mugabe and his party can ensure that all outstanding issues are resolved amicably. It is within their power to bring an end to the sanctions. ZANU PF should not continue to treat the MDCs as junior partners in the GNU. It should show that there is genuine power sharing. Mugabe’s henchmen should stop acting with impunity. The Attorney General and the police should start pursuing all those who were involved in violence regardless of political affiliation. We want to see Chinotimba and the senior army officers who terrorised people and burned homes around the country being tried for these crimes. We want to see ZANU PF accept that people can and should choose what party they belong to. A more recent example of ZANU PF shooting itself in the foot is the attempt by Chinamasa and Mangwana to derail the appointment of the new media commission because Mahoso and Mutsvangwa failed to make the final list. For the first time we have a parliament led process and ZANU PF are crying foul. If statements by George Charamba are anything to go by then Mugabe is likely to reverse the whole process in order to appoint his surrogates. Why then should the West remove the targeted sanctions?

In my last blog I urged President Zuma to bring an open mind and to look at the terms of the GPA and to make his judgments based only on the evidence before him. I still hope he will do if he does not allow Mugabe’s hospitality to cloud his judgment. I am still concerned that Zuma has chosen to leave the matter until he comes to Harare as a guest of the Zimbabwe government. His independence may be curtailed by his desire to show courtesy to his host. Zuma should tell Mugabe that the world is willing to move only if he moves. The evidence on the ground does not seem to suggest that ZANU PF has adjusted their approach to governing to take into account the new political dispensation. Zuma should not allow ZANU PF to shift the focus from the ‘weighty issues’ by talking about sanctions. Most donor nations have pledged to help Zimbabwe once signs of real change are there for all to see. Mugabe and his cronies do not need to travel to the West for aid and monetary support to come they just need to take the GNU seriously. Zimbabweans are pinning their hopes on Zuma ‘forcing’ the principals to deal with all outstanding issues. Sanctions will die a natural death once the GPA is fully consummated.

Tuesday, 4 August 2009

Zuma’s chance to break with the past

Having met with Prime Minister Tsvangirai to discuss the state of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) President Zuma has now been presented with a chance to break with the past. It is encouraging that he acknowledged that there are weighty issues holding back the full consummation of the GPA.

Under the presidency of Thabo Mbeki the South African government had adopted a ‘hear no evil; see no evil’ approach to Mugabe’s transgressions. Mbeki was always willing to openly criticise the MDC and its leadership while maintaining a policy of ‘quiet diplomacy’ for Zanu PF and Robert Mugabe. This approach allowed Mugabe to act with impunity and, among other things, allowed Zanu PF thugs to continue maiming and killing innocent people for daring to oppose their leader. Most Zimbabweans felt betrayed by Mbeki both as South African president and as the SADC mediator. It is for this reason that many will not be excited by the pronouncements of President Zuma that he will intervene to ensure the GPA is fully implemented. No one can blame us for being sceptical because for years we have been disappointed by those who wielded the power to change our desperate political situation.

President Zuma now has a chance to change our perception of the Presidency in South Africa. We have come to associate the South African Presidency with those who appease Robert Mugabe without the courage to confront him when the need arises. Zuma now has a chance to break with this past. President Zuma has the power to change the situation in Zimbabwe if he chooses to put his foot down. What Zimbabweans are asking of Zuma is not that he just criticises Mugabe without cause but that he attempts to get to the bottom of the problems bedevilling the GPA. If he is to break with the past he must make an honest assessment of the situation in Zimbabwe before deciding who is stalling the progress of the unity government. Zuma must be prepared to criticise both Zanu PF and MDC where there is evidence that they are prolonging the suffering of Zimbabweans by not keeping their commitments under the GPA. The basis of criticism should be the terms of the GPA not personal like or dislike of the signatories to the GPA. In the past Thabo Mbeki allowed his personal dislike of Morgan Tsvangirai to cloud his judgement and he also allowed his elitist mentality to influence his dealings with Tsvangirai and Mugabe. Personal relationships became more important than rescuing Zimbabweans from the political and economic abyss. Zuma is not cut from the same elitist stone that Mbeki and Mugabe are cut from. He has made a big issue of his ‘common’ roots and we hope that this time we have a South African President who is on the side of ordinary people.

As President Zuma goes to speak to Robert Mugabe about the ‘weighty’ issues threatening the GNU in Zimbabwe I hope that he will be objective, fair and firm with all the signatories to the GPA. I hope that he will not allow personalities and relationships to cloud his judgement. He should rely only on the letter and spirit of the GPA to determine who has not kept their side of the deal. This is a chance for Zuma to break with the past or to join Mbeki in defending Mugabe at all costs. We wait with baited breath!