Saturday 17 October 2009

What Now?

The decision by the MDC to stop cooperating with Zanu PF at Cabinet and Council of Ministers level has met with mixed reactions. There are those who think that the MDC has made a tactical error by backing themselves into a corner. They argue that if nothing happens then the MDC will be forced to go back into the Unity Government with tails between legs. On the other hand are those who feel that the MDC did the right thing by taking action and making a clear statement that things are not working. Those on this side feel that the time has come to stop hoping that things will get better and to start taking concrete steps.

What, however, is clear is that both those who disagree with the decision and those who agree with it are all agreed that walking away from the GNU will be catastrophic. Everyone seems to realise that this deal offers more hope for our nation than a situation where Mugabe and his lieutenants take over the running of the country again. I am not privy to Zanu PF thinking so I do not know what they think about the total collapse of this deal. However, judging from the power hunger that pervades people in this party it would not be farfetched to think that most of them would relish the chance to run (ruin) the country as they did in the last thirty years. Many in Zanu PF including Robert Mugabe believe that they have divine right to rule Zimbabwe even after losing the elections. This explains why Robert Mugabe is not doing anything even where issues have been resolved and agreed. The issue of provincial governors is a case in point. One senses that they are trying to push the MDC into walking away then they go back to the policies that made Mugabe and his cronies rich while the rest of the population starved. You can see that there is nostalgia in Zanu PF for those days when they could do what they want, when Gideon Gono expropriated foreign currency from organisations and individuals without regard for the law and when nobody asked questions. Even though now they still do not provide answers many in Zanu PF feel uncomfortable that these questions are being asked. Soon the land audit will start asking some uncomfortable questions. These may not result in people giving back land (Zanu does not do giving back) but it will expose the greed and corruption at the heart of the whole land reform programme. It is, therefore, in the interests of Zanu PF that this Unity Government collapses because then they can go back to blaming others for the problems bedevilling our nation.

Given this scenario it is imperative that the MDCs (Mutambara included) define a clear course of action. There are some uncomfortable questions that should be asked. These questions include having to decide when pulling out of the GNU will become an option as well as how much time they are going to give Zanu PF before escalating the crisis. There has to be some bench marks to determine when continued participation is no longer possible. The MDC does not have to make these public but it does need to start planning for two outcomes - the possibility of the contentious issues being resolved and the GNU continuing and the possibility that things come to a head and the GNU collapses. I am of the opinion that we need to keep this government going for as long as we can but that when it becomes unworkable then we should disengage fully. Those in the relationship are better placed to make this judgement call. What we, on the outside, can only say is that when the time to make this decision comes then they must be widespread consultation to ensure that the decision has the support of ordinary people as well as those in the leadership of the party.

I do not subscribe to the school of thought that says that the MDC will be the main loser if the GNU fails. Zanu PF will still be the government but only in name because there won’t be a country to rule over. If anything, it may end up being the tipping point for Zanu PF as the people’s anger may boil over. Who knows even the docile Zimbabweans may not be willing to go through any more suffering just to keep Zanu PF in power. Therefore, Zanu PF will do well to think of the possible consequences before sounding the death knell on the GNU. The people are now aware that Zanu PF was given a lifeline through the GNU. If they choose to squander it then they will face the consequences.

The GNU, with all its shortcomings, allows the MDCs some measure of influence and control with regard to the destiny of our nation. For example it has made it impossible for Gono to unilaterally dispense of the World Bank funds. It has given them access to government information as well as an opportunity to show the people that they can be a government. Everyone you speak to is talking about how the MDC has brought change to people’s lives. Everyone is also aware that the pace of change is being slowed down by Zanu PF. These are the benefits accruing from the MDC’s participation in the GNU.

I applaud the decision to make a statement through the partial withdrawal but I would counsel caution and serious thought before the MDC fully withdraws from the GNU.