These are interesting times in ZANU PF (ZPF) as the party grapples with the fallout from the leaked US diplomatic cables. Wikileaks has finally caught up with ZPF. All the ZPF singers had a field day when the first cables of the conversations between US diplomats and members of the MDC were published. There were enthusiastic calls for people to be charged with treason. One of the loudest proponents of this course of action was Jonathan Moyo, MP. One wonders what he thinks now that it has been revealed that he also spoke to the Americans; even calling for regime change.
For a party that expelled Tracy Mutinhiri because of suspected links to MDC T (a lawfully constituted and registered political party) to not do something to people who dared to speak to the ‘hated’ Americans would be unbelievable. It would be hypocrisy at its highest for ZPF to expel Mutinhiri and yet do nothing to senior leaders who prostituted themselves to the Americans. So what will Mugabe do? Will he expel all the rebels who clearly feel that he has become a liability to the party and to the country?
One of the hawks in ZPF, Didymus Mutasa, is quoted in the media suggesting that those who engaged the US diplomats should be sanctioned. This issue will play right into the feisty succession debate currently engulfing the former ruling party. What must be playing on Mugabe’s mind is the potential of this tearing apart a party that is already fragile from the reported infighting. Chances are that if senior members of the party are suspended or expelled on the basis of the leaked cables then the infighting could potentially become a full on war which leaves the party terminally wounded. ZPF is a sick party and is unlikely to survive the upheaval that faces the party as it seeks to deal decisively with the ‘traitors’ who shared party secrets with US diplomats.
One way to deal with this would be to discredit the leaked cables as untrue and unfounded. This would allow ZPF to move on without having to do anything. However, discrediting the cables means that ZPF cannot then use them against the opposition. The ZPF Attorney General Johannes Tomana’s attempt to charge opposition politicians on the basis of evidence from the cables would automatically fall away. I am reliably informed by people with a greater understanding of Zimbabwe’s criminal law than mine that Tomana’s chances of successfully prosecuting the cases was nonexistent but it didn’t matter as long as it was MDC people being persecuted (prosecuted).
Another problem for Mugabe is that up to now he has maintained the myth that it is people outside ZPF who were calling for his departure. He has always claimed that it is the western ‘puppets’ in the MDC who have been pushing the agenda for regime change. This has now been shown to be the myth it has always been. The recent leaked cables reveal that significant numbers of ZPF officials want him to go. There is a growing consensus in Zimbabwe and in ZPF that Mugabe has become a liability. This is significant because it means that Mugabe can no longer claim that it is only Tsvangirai and other opposition leaders who want him out. It takes away the argument that we have heard ad nauseum from Mugabe and his party. The list of people who are reported to have spoken to the Americans reads like the Who is Who in ZPF and they all want Mugabe. Those of us who have always wanted Mugabe and his party to leave power will feel vindicated that even those closest to him feel that his time is up.
The other thing that has been revealed by these cables is that despite their public protestations people in ZPF want to impress the Americans. This could explain the anger in ZPF over the issue of targeted sanctions. Those in ZPF seem to have been competing for the approval of the mighty USA. The coming weeks and months will be interesting. We will keep watching the space!
