Of Robert Mugabe’s threats and the impact on the economy

Zimbabwe is an exciting place. You can’t beat the way we shoot ourselves in the foot. There has been a lot of debate surrounding the merits and demerits of the targeted sanctions. The sanctions have been blamed for all our economic ills and the absence of foreign direct investment (FDI). Then in one swoop Robert Mugabe removed whatever little chance we had of FDI by threatening to take over companies in revenge for the targeted sanctions.

Any foreign investor watching Robert Mugabe’s speech in Mutare will have deduced that if you invest in Zimbabwe your investment is only safe if your government is in good books with Zimbabwe. This failure to distinguish between individuals and their governments or countries of origin has been our biggest problem. Using business people as a pawn in our fight with western governments is wrong. What the Chinese, Indians and other potential investors will ask themselves is: What will happen when Mugabe is annoyed with their governments? The answer is manifestly clear in Mugabe’s statement to the Zanu PF (ZPF) conference. If we don’t like your government we will take away your business. With hundreds of countries around the world falling over each other to create investor friendly policies one cannot see any serious investors coming to Zimbabwe.

We have been here before. The land reform was another example of a badly thought out policy that was premised on revenge. ZPF and Mugabe had a quarrel with the then British government and they took their ire on all the white farmers. Every white farmer became a pawn in the power game between Zimbabwe and Britain. I leave it to others to judge whether the land reform policy has been a success in achieving its aims. However, the lesson that we should have learnt from our land reform programme is that we should not have policies driven by anger or any other emotion. Policies should be thought through and carefully planned. This has not been ZPF’s strength over the years – war vet payments, farm invasions, murambatsvina, and now this...

Once again ZPF is looking for a populist policy to shore up their falling popularity. Faced with certain defeat in 2000 they came up with the violent land reform programme. This gave them a reason to visit violence on all people on the farms. While the media focussed on the farmers who were killed or savagely attacked, the narrative ignored the suffering of the farm workers. It largely ignored the violence that was visited on them for daring to oppose ZPF in the constitutional referendum. The real beneficiaries of the land reform have been senior ZPF and security people who now have several farms. Now ZPF has come up with another populist policy designed to hoodwink voters into thinking that they care about Zimbabweans. This new policy as written by Mugabe at the ZPF conference will once again benefit the ZPF big fish. They will throw lots and divide the spoils among themselves while ordinary Zimbabweans live in the clutches of poverty. It will be another reason to visit violence on the people of Zimbabwe.

Someone in ZPF should tell Mugabe that he is putting the final nail on Zimbabwe’s coffin. We have had a decade of destroying the economy. The GPA had allowed us to arrest the decline but now that Mugabe believes that power, by any means, is better than protecting our future the little gains are about to disappear. I know some people will accuse me of saying that native Zimbabweans have no capacity to run these companies. I am not suggesting this at all but I am stating that whatever we do, we need FDI if our economy is to grow. The (un)intended consequences of Mugabe’s rant at his party’s conference will be to scare away investors. If the intention is to punish the Americans and the British then inadvertently this policy will scare away foreign investors.

If Mugabe was one who listens to advice then I would have offered my advice but he is stubborn and allergic to advice so I will not waste my advice on him. However, there are those in his party to whom he might listen. These women and men should tell him he is making a mistake. Those in ZPF who love Zimbabwe must act against Mugabe. I wish.

Lessons from the failed England World Cup bid

There is understandable anger in England after the country failed to win the right to host the 2018 Football World Cup. There is no doubt that England presented one of the best technical and commercial bids for the 2018 World Cup. This was in the FIFA report. Understandably England will feel that after losing out to Germany in 2006 they would have a claim to host it after 44years of waiting. This is especially so when one considers that Germany which hosted the 1974 has already had a second bite of the cherry.
I am convinced that after the Charlie Dempsey debacle in the voting for the 2006 World Cup all people of goodwill should have roundly condemned the FIFA way of doing business. However, there was silence or half-hearted protests when South Africa was clearly cheated of the right to host the World Cup. There is no evidence that bribes were paid but it is difficult not to believe the conspiracy theorists who believe that Charlie Dempsey was given incentives so that he would refuse to vote as instructed by his Confederation. I am highly sceptical of Dempsey’s explanation that he abstained because “...the pressure from all sides including "an attempt to bribe" him had become too much for him.” I am convinced that the real reason was to make sure that the vote would not be decided by the President’s casting vote. Knowing that Sepp Blatter was likely to vote for South Africa they connived to have Dempsey to abstain. This was probably not the first time that people had been offered favours in return for voting or in this case not voting. Everyone knew that South Africa had been cheated but it was not influential enough for people to call for an enquiry into the FIFA voting system. It was accepted that Germany had won and nothing was made of it.
However, by not challenging the injustice of the 2006 situation Football Associations around the world legitimised FIFA’s way of doing business. FIFA Executive Committee acts with impunity knowing that they are accountable only to themselves. England, USA and Australia who feel aggrieved by the FIFA voting system for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups have finally experienced what it feels like to know that decisions in football have nothing to do with football. We have allowed FIFA to be the judge and jury in all matters football. I think that if football lovers around the world do not demand transparency from FIFA then we will continue to see decisions like the ones for the 2006 and 2018. We demand transparency from our political and business leaders why is it wrong to demand openness and transparency from football’s governing board – FIFA.
What today’s decision underlines is that any country that dares challenge FIFA risks losing in a very embarrassing way. From now on countries wishing to host the World Cup will have to muzzle their media in order not to bruise the egos of the FIFA Executive Committee. This is frightening prospect! Should the world allow 24 men to use their power to stop legitimate questions being asked about their business dealings? Is it right that we stop the media from asking questions so as not jeopardise our chance of hosting the World Cup? The fear of the FIFA Executive Committee was so evident in England where a nation that strongly believes in media freedom was so cowed that there was a concerted effort to stop the broadcasting of the Panorama programme on FIFA corruption. It was strange for a nation that a few months ago was celebrating The Telegraph for outing the MPs expense scandal; a nation currently engrossed in the 250 000 documents leaked from the US State Department by Wikileaks was imploring the BBC to delay the airing of the Panorama programme so as not to upset the all powerful FIFA Executive Committee. Until we trim FIFA’s omnipotence the whole footballing world will forever be beholden to the 24 men who make up the FIFA Executive Committee. We will be so scared of digging up any dirt on the Executive members in case our nation will one day want to bid for the World Cup.
This is not about the England 2018 bid but about the dangerous precedent set by the events of the last few weeks. To quote Edmund Burke “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." The evil that is in the FIFA empire is thriving because good (wo)men have chosen not to do anything about. We must demand accountability from FIFA without fear or favour. We demand accountability from all our national and international organisations hence we must demand accountability from FIFA. We need to unravel the murky and secretive world of FIFA business dealings.

What happened to the Zimbabweans’ fighting spirit?

"There is one thing stronger than all the armies in the world, and that is an idea whose time has come." Victor Hugo

To have or not to have elections in 2011 that is the question? There have been compelling arguments put forward for both having and not having the elections. I have been grappling with this difficult question for the past few weeks. Every time I have found myself going back to the question: What ever happened to our fighting spirit?
Zimbabweans have been variously described as meek, passive and lacking in fighting spirit by several political and media commentators. It is difficult for me to accept that Zimbabweans have no fight in them. These are the people who, in their different ways, rose up against the evil and supremely armed Rhodesian system. As communities, Mujibhas, Chimbwidos and guerrillas they stood up against the oppressive system that treated them as second class citizens in their homeland. They were not intimidated by the fact that Ian Smith controlled the army and the police. They were not stopped by the fact that Smith was prepared to use violence and the arms of war to stop them from achieving their dream. They stood up to him and other Rhodesians.
It is this that makes it difficult for me to understand the defeatist attitude that seems to have engulfed our nation. Zimbabweans have been cowed down by Mugabe and ZPF to the extent that they have accepted their lot. Everyone knows that elections will be violent; that ZPF will use the army, police and militias to subdue the people. No one would wish to see what happened to people in cities and villages during the 2008 election happen again. But for how long are we going to wait? What guarantee is there that if we wait 2, 3 or 5 years the situation will change? Some arguments seem to suggest that people have completely given up the hope of taking on Mugabe. We seem to be happy to pick up the crumps from Mugabe’s table. There is a long list of political commentators, politicians, journalists and ordinary people who believe it is best to let the unease ‘peace’ that we are currently enjoying last than try to dislodge the ZPF regime. People are quick to point to the fact that things have improved; business is recovering and some international aid is flowing into the country. Why put all this at risk by having an election?
My answer is that we need to have a government directly elected by the people not one cobbled together by politicians under a tree. We need to have a President who makes decisions because he has the people’s mandate not one who owes his presidency to a compromise by politicians. As Zimbabweans we fought a difficult war of liberation for the right to choose our leaders. We must, therefore, dig deep into that fighting spirit that defined us during the liberation struggle. We should not allow Mugabe to kill this indomitable Zimbabwean spirit that helped us fight against all odds. Zimbabwe should be bigger than the politicians and their political parties. We should not be intimidated by the fact that Mugabe and ZPF control the army, police and militias. We should not be stopped by the fact that Mugabe and ZPF, like Ian Smith, are prepared to use violence to maintain the status quo.
Zimbabwe should have elections and the time frame should not be dictated to us by those who use violence and those who threaten violence. I am quite happy for people to argue that systems are not yet in place to run an election so we should delay them. But for people to advocate that we postpone elections indefinitely because we fear violence is unacceptable. Violence has been allowed to define our lives and I think it is time that we take control of our lives again. We fought for this freedom and we must defend it with our lives. The time has come for us to reclaim our homeland from the small clique of politicians who think that they can ride roughshod over us forever. This is an idea whose time has come and we must stand up to be counted.

We risk handing it to ZANU PF again.

Constitutional reform in Zimbabwe has gathered momentum with the outreach programme trying to capture views of Zimbabweans all over the country. This good work has, however, been overshadowed by ZANU PF thugs beating and scaring people away from participating in the outreach. Like always ZANU PF is scared of people power. When people come together to shape the future of our country ZANU PF is scared.

On the sidelines of the Outreach programme another debate is raging. People are arguing over the ‘best’ way to re-write our constitution. There are very good arguments on both sides of the debate but we risk taking our eyes off the ball and focusing on the sideshow. I have great respect for Dr Lovemore Madhuku and the civil society constitutional movement represented by the NCA. The NCA has done a great job in bringing ordinary people into the constitutional debate. I have my reservations about the current approach but it represents a real chance for constitutional reform in our troubled nation. The naked truth is that we need a new constitution not as a panacea to our political problems but as one of the building blocks towards a real democracy. On its own a constitution can never ensure a functional democracy but it can be the beginning.

What I am worried about is that those who really want constitutional reform are at each other’s throats leaving ZANU PF to laugh all the way to a rigged referendum. ZANU PF is happy with the current Constitutional dispensation and will give anything to maintain the status quo. The re-hiring of Jonathan Moyo as a ZANU PF adviser should serve as a warning to all of us. Faced with certain defeat against democratic forces movement in the 1999 referendum he shifted the goal posts. He knew that there was no chance of people voting with ZANU PF so he included things that people did not like so that they would vote against the draft constitution. In doing so we delivered the result that ZANU PF wanted - the return to the patched up Lancaster House constitution. In one stroke Jonathan Moyo and Godfrey Chidyausiku delivered to ZANU PF the victory they were craving for. The same scenario is about to repeat itself again. While civil society is busy campaigning against the ‘undemocratic’ manner in which the reform is being done, ZANU PF is busy forcing people not to take part in the process. Both these measures will result in fewer people engaging with the process and as a result a poorer product at the end of the process. The reason why ZPF want the Kariba Draft is that it keeps most of the controversial presidential powers in the person of the President. The plan in ZANU PF is to deliver a constitution that has controversial provisions so that people will once again vote against the new constitution.

How then do we deal with this problem? We have to set ourselves benchmarks that will allow us to support the new constitution. Even with flaws a new constitution is better than the patched up Lancaster House constitution. Some of the key things I would like to get out of this process are:

1. To enshrine the supremacy of parliament over the executive
2. That all senior appointments in government and quasi government bodies by the executive are ratified by both houses of parliament
3. That the President does not have power to override parliamentary legislation except in an emergency and that such temporary legislation is ratified by parliament within 21 days
4. That all judiciary nominations are subject to ratification by parliament through its Judicial Services Committee
5. That we have a fixed term parliament
6. That Presidents are limited to two five year terms

If we can ensure that these values are in our new constitution then we would have gone a long way in changing the politics of our country. This will ensure that the checks and balances on the executive are there. I am not saying we should throw the baby away with the bath water if some of these measures are not in the final draft constitution. Rather I am saying that we should keep an open mind and make a judgment as to whether the new constitution helps to change our political landscape for the better even though it omits some of the provisions we would have wanted included.

However, if we choose to fight each other and oppose the new constitution then we risk giving ZANU PF the right to ride roughshod over us for another generation. It is in ZANU PF interests to maintain the status quo and the infighting among the democratic forces plays right into their plan. The lesson we should take from 1999 is that it is better to adopt a new constitution with some flaws and then hope that we can refine it over the coming years. There is no guarantee that a constitution that includes all the things that different interest groups are pushing for will be a good constitution.

Let us stop ZANU PF by coming together and working together to influence the constitutional process. When the constitution comes to a referendum then we should push for a Yes Vote if we think that it reduces the Executive’s powers especially those of the President. I urge the NCA and its Civil Society partners to do the right thing by ensuring that we do not have another five years of the patched up Lancaster House Constitution. ZANU PF will laugh all the way to the ballot box if we do not reform the constitution.

Zimbabweans will feel cheated

The parties to the Global Political Agreement (GPA) have now failed to consummate it. There is now virtually no possibility that the GPA will ever be fully implemented. While the politicians are bickering and fighting over who is to blame for this failure to fully implement the GPA the people have continued to suffer under the burden of poverty.

Most Zimbabweans have no electricity, no water and other everyday needs. They are struggling to survive on little or no income because industries and other commercial organisations have not yet started recruiting workers. Against this background there is an even bigger tragedy happening across the country. Life is becoming increasingly difficult for ordinary people in Zimbabwe. The ushering in of the US dollar/ South African Rand monetary system was meant to slow down inflation as well as to bring back goods on the supermarket shelves. It was also meant to reduce the rate at which goods increase prices. The use of US dollars and SA Rands has cut down inflation and has made goods available in shops. What the policy has failed to do is to ensure that the prices charged by utility companies (water, electricity and phone) and other service providers are reasonable in terms of the foreign currencies that are being used in the country. What is clear is that, based on their buying power, the US dollar and the Rand are less valuable in Zimbabwe than in their native countries. This means that the prices people are paying are still as astronomical as they were when we were paying in Zimbabwe dollars.

This is clearly illustrated by the medical costs where you are forced to take your relative to private hospital because the state hospitals cannot treat them or because there are no specialists at state hospitals to treat them. I am not talking about people choosing to go private hospitals because they can afford it but people who have no choice because if they do not take the loved ones to a private hospital/ clinic then chances are that their loved ones will die. I strongly believe that the role of government is to ensure that there is fairness especially for the vulnerable. Medical bills have become too expensive for most people in Zimbabwe resulting in people who shouldn’t die dying. Medical bills for hospitalisation at private institutions range from 300USD to 500USD for three days excluding food which is paid for separately. So if you stay in hospital for nine days you will have to pay 1500USD for the stay then pay for the food and medication separately. The food and medication could set you back another 2000 – 3000USD. The cost of a pint of blood at private clinics is 600USD while it costs 50USD in state hospitals. I have evidence for these figures because I have paid or have been charged these amounts in the last few weeks. If people who give their blood freely realised that they could fail to get blood when they need it if they do not have fifty dollars or more they would think twice before donating blood. Most people give blood because they believe that it could save lives without realising that it will only save the lives of those with money. I propose that if the government does not urgently take action then those who give blood should consider selling their blood to the Blood Transfusion Service to ensure that they have the money to pay for blood when eventually they need transfusions.

It will be a sad day when the Blood Transfusion Service will have to pay more than a soft drink and a biscuit for a pint of blood. However, government inaction leaves people no option but to act selfishly. People elect governments to ensure that all people (rich and poor) can go to hospital and receive treatment that is good and affordable. I call on government to seriously look into the amounts being charged by utility companies and private hospitals in order to ensure that they are commensurate with the salaries that are being paid to people. It is immoral that these companies and organisations are allowed to act with impunity. Both MDC and ZANU PF claim to stand for ordinary people but evidence on the ground does not seem to suggest this. We need intervention from government on behalf of the poor to ensure that all people get the benefits of introducing US dollars and SA Rands into the Zimbabwean economy. Until this happens the people will feel cheated by this Government of National Unity. I do not blame the businesses and private hospitals for taking advantage of the new dispensation because the people we pay to protect us from this are doing nothing. The government is failing the ordinary people.

Mugabe’s problem with Malema

This week has seen the arrival of the controversial leader of the ANC Youth League, Julius Malema. This was considered good by ZANU PF who considered an endorsement of their policies from him as a coup against the MDC. After all he had publicly endorsed the chaotic land reform, called the Dear Leader a hero and spoke the ‘revolutionary’ speak that resonates well with the ZANU PF supporters. However the Shona people have a saying that says ‘Unofarira n’anga neinobata mai (Praising a healer who will accuse your mother of being the witch)’.
There are two things that would have embarrassed Mugabe and his party during the recent visit of Julius Malema.
The first issue that left Mugabe with egg on his face is that Malema actually told ZANU PF what no other ANC leader has had courage to. Speaking to ZANU PF Youths he is reported to have said, “But militancy does not mean cutting people hands, militancy does not mean violent politics...” Reading the lines here shows that Malema is telling Mugabe that his party is a party of violence and that it must change. Even though I do not like Malema’s politics I think he hit the nail on the head here by telling ZANU PF that they are the party that has visited violence on the people of Zimbabwe. There is no ambiguity here. ZANU PF kills and maims people and it must stop this if they are to be trusted by the people of Zimbabwe. Malema also suggested that ZANU PF had run out of ideas so they were resorting to violence. His words were, “Those who think violence is a means for solutions, they cannot think, that is why they introduce violent politics in the politics of Zimbabwe…” This drills huge holes into the claims by ZANU PF that MDC is a violent party. Even though MDC leaders have been arrested more than ZANU PF leaders on charges of violence we now know the truth because a close friend of ZANU PF has told us. It is no longer the European and American imperialists telling us Mugabe and ZANU PF are violent. It is his friends. Vakapemberera n’anga yakabata mai (The ZANU PF traditional healer accused of being a witch).

Malema also appeared to suggest that whites are better looking than black people. This will disappoint Mugabe who has been quoted as saying that white people stink. It will also disappoint those of us who believe in the beauty of all humanity regardless of their skin colour. But the controversial Malema thinks otherwise. Having captured the headlines with his rhetoric against white people, white interests and all things white Malema appeared to change his mind. In remarks attributed to him in Mbare Malema is reported to have said, “They are so bright, they are colourful, we refer to them as white people, maybe their colour came as a result of exploiting our minerals and perhaps if some of us can get opportunities in these minerals we can develop some nice colour like them." This seems to suggest that he is unhappy with the colour of his skin. For a ‘young revolutionary’ who has made it his life’s career to verbally attack white people this is the kind of mixed message that shows there is a chink in that ‘shining black armour’. I am sure Robert Mugabe winced when he read these reports.
The lesson from all this seems to be that it is political suicide for anyone to rely on unpredictable, fringe politicians like Malema to put across your views. Mugabe will rue having given Malema a red carpet reception.

Time to start formulating a new strategy

A lot has happened in the weeks and months since I last wrote on this blog. Zimbabwean politics moves at hurricane pace in terms of events but sadly this is not the case with regard to progress in solving the perennial problems bedevilling our country.

We have seen the restart, suspension, and restart of the doomed talks between MDC, ZANU PF and Arthur Mutambara. We have also seen the start of Senator Roy Bennett’s trial which has provided some lighter moments especially the reported exchanges between the ‘Zanunised’ Attorney General Tomana and Mr Hitschmann. Then we learned that the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s properties had been attached for failure to service debts even though the ‘impeccable’ Gideon Gono is still the governor there. ZANU PF has been throwing the toys around because they have failed to fool and/or blackmail the West into lifting the targeted sanctions.

In the midst of all this drama we seem to have lost the plot a bit. By ‘we’ I mean all Zimbabweans outside of ZANU PF. In this theatre of absurdity we have allowed ZANU PF to regain initiative by moving the debate away from the real issues to sanctions and now the idea of holding the elections under the current constitutional dispensation. ZANU PF has been milking every opportunity to stall the progress towards a new Zimbabwe. In a clear sign that they are preparing for war we now hear that Andrew Langa and Joyce Mujuru were launching a parallel outreach process for the constitution. Everyone knows what ZANU PF’s idea of outreach is – broken bones, dead bodies, burnt homes, the list goes on. The farm invasions have intensified with Judges and Magistrates bribed into bending the law through farm offers. There are too many red flags to ignore.

While I never thought the MDC could get concessions from ZANU PF on all outstanding issues I still believed that there would be progress on some issues. Things are not looking good at the negotiations so we may have to start planning for an alternative ending. ZANU PF is trying to push MDC into leaving the GNU so that they can call elections without having to negotiate. If at all possible, the MDC should hang in there so as to frustrate ZANU PF’s plan to cheat the people of Zimbabwe of the future they deserve. The noises coming from Jacob Zuma and his SADC do not inspire confidence. Now he wants Zimbabwe to hold elections without sorting out the outstanding GPA issues. It would appear that Zimbabweans were used by the South African government as pawns in the politics of the World Cup. Now that the World Cup is in the bag South Africa does not care a hoot about the welfare of the Zimbabwean people. If ZANU PF chooses to kill thousands of Zimbabweans as part of an election campaign that takes place after the World Cup then it won’t matter.

The recent appeal to SADC and AU concerning the talks by the MDC should be viewed in the light of recent events. There is little or no chance that these two ‘esteemed’ African organizations will do anything about Mugabe’s wayward behaviour. The MDC must begin planning for a post GNU scenario. Everyone acknowledges that the MDC has done all it can to return Zimbabwe to the community of nations and to improve the economics of the country but it is likely that their position in the GNU will soon become untenable. They, therefore, must have a clear plan of action to counter ZANU PF strategy. The strategists in the party should come up with a comprehensive plan that covers all the things that could go wrong. As the cliché goes ‘Failure to plan is planning to fail’. The MDC appears to have been lulled into a false sense of security. I may be wrong but I think MDC is not planning for the worst. It would be tragic if when the GNU collapses or outlives its usefulness the MDC find themselves without a plan for countering ZANU PF. In 2008 we were caught off guard but once beaten twice shy. We should never allow ZANU PF to catch us napping again. Like always I do not expect the MDC to share their plans with us lesser mortals but those in the driving seat of the organisation should have a clear idea of what the organisation will do in the event of a premature end to the GNU. I am just worried that the MDC may be left without a chair when the music stops...